Overall Records for 2012

SU: 27-21 (56.25%)

ATS: 27-21 (56.25%)

O/U: 25-23 (52.08%)

Week 3 (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 OU)

Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Thursday @8:20pm

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers

Prediction: Panthers win 27-26

Pick: Panthers +1.5

O/U: Over 49.5

Sunday @1pm

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys

Prediction: Cowboys win 24-20

Pick: Buccaneers +8

O/U: Under 46

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Prediction: Dolphins win 22-21

Pick: Dolphins +3.5

O/U: Over 40

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints

Prediction: Saints win 34-18

Pick: Saints -9

O/U: Under 54

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins

Prediction: Bengals 20-16

Pick: Bengals +4.5

O/U: Under 49

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans

Prediction: Lions win 25-21

Pick: Lions -3.5

O/U: Under 47

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings

Prediction: 49ers win 24-20

Pick: Vikings +7.5

O/U: Over 43

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: Colts win 20-14

Pick: Colts -2.5

O/U: Under 42

St. Louis Rams at Chicago Bears

Prediction: Bears win 23-15

Pick: Rams +9

O/U: Under 44.5

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns

Prediction: Bills 23-18

Pick: Bills -3

O/U: Under 44

Sunday @4:05pm

Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers

Prediction: Chargers 26-25

Pick: Falcons +3.5

O/U: Over 47.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals

Prediction:  Eagles 28-23

Pick: Eagles -3.5

O/U: Over 43.5

Sunday @4:25pm

Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders

Prediction: Steelers 24-23

Pick: Raiders +4.5

O/U: Over 44.5

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos

Prediction:  Texans win 25-21

Pick: Texans -2

O/U: Over 44.5

Sunday @8:20

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens

Prediction: Patriots win 29-22

Pick: Patriots +3.5

O/U: Over 48.5

Monday @8:30pm

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

Prediction: Packers win 29-19

Pick: Packers -3.5

O/U: Over 47

StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of September 18, 2012 at 6:10pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

Team	Rank	Change	Record	ESPN	TeamRankings.com	SOS	Points Diff
San Francisco	1	↑1	2-0	1	2	10	+16
Green Bay	2	↓1	1-1	4	13	23	+5
New England	3	–	1-1	5	7	32	+19
Baltimore	4	–	1-1	6	6	7	+30
Pittsburgh	5	↑1	1-1	9	12	22	+5
New Orleans	6	↓1	0-2	24	23	24	-16
Houston	7	↑2	2-0	2	10	29	+40
Atlanta	8	–	2-0	3	9	30	+22
Detroit	9	↓2	1-1	13	14	12	-4
San Diego	10	↑2	2-0	11	11	26	+36
Philadelphia	11	↓1	2-0	7	4	11	+2
Arizona	12	↑5	2-0	14	1	2	+6
NY Giants	13	↑2	1-1	8	8	1	0
Seattle	14	↑5	1-1	17	3	5	+16
Chicago	15	↓4	1-1	12	21	13	+7
Cincinnati	16	↑2	1-1	16	17	19	-24
NY Jets	17	↓4	1-1	18	20	15	+3
Denver	18	↓2	1-1	10	16	4	+6
Dallas	19	↓5	1-1	15	5	6	-13
Miami	20	↑3	1-1	25	18	21	+2
Carolina	21	↑3	1-1	19	22	20	+2
Tennessee	22	↓2	0-2	26	27	18	-49
Buffalo	23	↑3	1-1	22	25	28	-2
Washington	24	↓2	1-1	20	15	17	+5
Oakland	25	↓4	0-2	30	28	27	-30
Kansas City	26	↓1	0-2	28	30	31	-34
Minnesota	27	–	1-1	29	31	9	0
Tampa Bay	28	–	1-1	21	24	25	-1
Cleveland	29	↑1	0-2	32	26	8	-8
Jacksonville	30	↓1	0-2	31	32	14	-23
St. Louis	31	–	1-1	23	19	3	-1
Indianapolis	32	–	1-1	27	29	16	-17

Cheers.

Update: Apparently, it seems, I am completely wrong about this, and that it is well established that a team should go for two earlier.  Via Twitter, @bdoc87 points to the book “Mathletics” where they suggest going to two in this situation as early as the second quarter.  There is also this chart, which says that you should go for two at any point in the second half if you are down 9 after scoring a touchdown.

Here is an article by Chase Stuart from www.footballperspective.com with the title “Trailing by 15 in the middle of the 4th quarter, teams are foolish to not go for 2 after touchdowns”.   They are arguing, as stated in the title of the article, that if a team is down by 15 in the middle of the final quarter and they score a touchdown (cutting the lead to 9), that they should go for two in an attempt to cut the lead to 7 rather than take the extra point and cut the lead to 8.  This is a fair argument and the author may well be correct, but they seem to offer absolutely no evidence that this is the correct decision.  For instance, the author states:

If you are going to convert the 2-point attempt, it doesn’t matter all that much whether you go for it early or late. If you’re going to miss it, going for it earlier significantly improves your odds of pulling off a miraculous comeback, precisely because you’re [sic] got almost no chance if you miss it late.

The author first notes that it doesn’t really matter whether you go for the 2 points early or late if you are going to convert it.  Sure fine, I’ll agree with that.  But then in the next sentence argues that “going for it earlier significantly improves your odds of pulling off a miraculous comeback”.  Is this true?  It may well be, but I see nothing in the article that even remotely supports this point.  It seems to just be stated as fact with no supporting evidence.  I  am gonna need more proof than this.  Ideally, one would look to collect actual data on this, and try to compare the two decisions.  However, it seems like football coaches almost always go for one, so a simulation study may be better here.  Make some assumptions, develop a model for a football game, and simulate this scenario say 10000 times going for the extra point and 10000 times going for 2.  Then you can estimate the probabilities of a win and say a team will win X percent of the time going for 1 and Y percent of the time going to 2.  I suspect there probably really isn’t much of a difference at all, but I have no evidence for or against this point.  It’s simply my opinion.  It looks to me like this entire article is stating a hypothesis (going for two is better than going for one), and that it is the authors opinion that going for two is better than going for one.  However, they seem to offer no evidence at all in support of their claims.  Although maybe I am missing something.

Go Falcons!

Cheers.

Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Thursday @8:20pm

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Prediction: Packers wins 26-21

Pick: Packers -5

O/U: Under 50.5

Sunday @1pm

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants

Prediction: Giants 24-21

Pick: Buccaneers +7.5

O/U: Over 43.5

Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots

Prediction: Patriots wins 28-20

Pick: Cardinals +13.5

O/U: Under 48

Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: Colts win 23-22

Pick: Colts +1.5

O/U: Over 44

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

Prediction: Saints win 29-20

Pick: Saints -2.5

O/U: Under 50.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Prediction: Bills win 21-20

Pick: Chiefs +3.5

O/U: Under 45

Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles

Prediction: Ravens win 25-24

Pick: Ravens +2.5

O/U: Over 46

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins

Prediction: Dolphins win 21-18

Pick: Dolphins +2.5

O/U: Over 37.5

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Prediction: Cincinnati wins 18-16

Pick: Browns +9.5

O/U: Under 38.5

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction: Texans win 25-18

Pick: Jaguars +7.5

O/U: Over 41.5

Sunday @4:05pm

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks

Prediction: Cowboys win 24-18

Pick: Dallas -3.5

O/U: Over 41.5

Sunday @4:25pm

Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams

Prediction: Redskins win 18-16

Pick: Rams +3.5

O/U: Under 45.5

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers

Prediction:  Steelers win 23-22

Pick: Jets +6.5

O/U: Over 41.5

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers

Prediction: Chargers win 26-21

Pick: Titans +5.5

O/U: Over 44.5

 Sunday @8:25

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers

Prediction: 49ers win 22-21

Pick: Lions +6.5

O/U: Under 46.5

Monday @8:35pm

Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons

Prediction: Falcons win 25-20

Pick: Falcons -3.5

O/U: Under 51

Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

Wednesday @8:30pm

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Prediction: Dallas wins 24-23

Pick: Cowboys +3.5

O/U: Over 47

Sunday @1pm

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears

Prediction: Indianapolis wins 22-21

Pick: Colts +10

O/U: Over 41.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns

Prediction: Eagles win 24-16

Pick: Eagles -8.5

O/U: Under 41

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Prediction: Jets win 23-20

Pick: Jets -3

O/U: Over 41

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints

Prediction: Saints win 28-17

Pick: Saints -9.5

O/U: Under 49.5

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans

Prediction: Patriots win 27-20

Pick: Patriots -6.5

O/U: Under 47.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings

Prediction: Vikings win 23-20

Pick: Jaguars +4.5

O/U: Over 38

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans

Prediction: Texans win 23-21

Pick: Dolphins +9.5

O/U: Over 43

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions

Prediction: Lions win 21-16

Pick: Rams +9

O/U: Under 46.5

Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs

Prediction: Falcons win 24-17

Pick: Falcons -1

O/U: Under 41.5

Sunday @4:25pm

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Prediction: Cardinals win 22-19

Pick: Cardinals +1.5

O/U: Under 40.5

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

Prediction: Packers wins 27-19

Pick: Packers -5.5

O/U: Over 45

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Prediction: Panthers wins 21-20

Pick: Buccaneers +2.5

O/U: Under 46.5

 Sunday @8:20

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

Prediction: Steelers win 23-20

Pick: Steelers Even

O/U: Under 44

Monday @7pm

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Prediction: Ravens win 23-18

Pick: Bengals +6

O/U: Over 40.5

Monday @10:15pm

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders

Prediction: Chargers win 27-19

Pick: Chargers -1.5

O/U: Under 47.5

 

Cheers.

Season Preview

It’s almost here! Another season of grown men smashing their brains together for our entertainment.  And entertained we will be.

So, let’s start at the end: which teams are most likely to be suffering life-lengthening (Not really) massive head injuries in February 2013 in New Orleans?  I’m once again making a not so bold prediction and taking Green Bay over New England in the Super Bowl this year.

Some Comments

AFC

East

New England has the easier road to New Orleans of the two by playing the softest regular season schedule of any team this year.  For starters, they play in the AFC east which features Buffalo, Miami, and  the New York Jets.  None of those teams had winning records last year, and they all failed to make the playoffs.  The Patriots then go on to play the AFC South and the NFC West.  The teams in these two divisions had a combined record of 56-72 last year.  In fact, they play only 3 games all of 2012 against teams that had winning records in 2011.  If they beat baltimore in week 3, they could very reasonably be 8-0 at their bye week.  If they start the first half of their season any worse than 6-2, it’s a disaster.

The Jets, Dolphins, and Bills are good teams, but none of them are very good teams.  They all get screwed annually by having to play New England twice every single year.

North

I always feel bad for the wild card team that always seems to come out of this division.  You win 11+games and, not only do you not get a bye week, you have to go ON THE ROAD to play some crap team from the AFC west after they “earned” home field advantage.  (What I’m saying is that Pittsburgh should not have had to go to Denver last year.)

I think Pittsburgh wins this division in a close race by either one game or in a tie-breaker with Baltimore.  The season’s biggest game outside the division is Baltimore’s game against New England.  Pittsburgh avoids having to play the Patriots this year and that might just be enough to get them the division title.

South

Texans.

West

Any of these teams has a legitimate shot to limp to a division title and playoff game (at home!).  I think San Diego wins it this year thanks to a much, much easier schedule than division foe Denver, who is the most likely team to challenge for the division.  Denver’s first 8 opponents all had at least 8 wins last year, and six of those 8 went to the playoffs.  Good luck Peyton.  Any of the four teams could realistically win this division, and there is a chance they could do it 2010 Seattle Seahawks style.  The AFC West drew the AFC North and the NFC South this year on their schedule.  So they’ll have to play Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati, New Orleans and Atlanta:  All 2011 playoff teams.  At least they all get to console themselves with the statement “Hey, at least we get to play [Insert AFC West team] twice”.  My dream is to see a team a 6-10 team make the playoffs and this year’s schedule and division of mediocrity are certainly keeping my hopes alive.

NFC

East

New York, Dallas, or Philadelphia has a real chance to win this division this year, but I think the Eagles get it done.  I thought the Eagles were the best team in this division last year, and I think they’re the best team in the division again.  It also helps that they have the easiest schedule of any of the teams that have a legitimate chance to win the division  (Washington does not).

North

Green Bay wins the division by at least two games.  The interesting question is who finishes second.  I’m taking Detroit as runner-up and earning a wild card spot and 5th seed in the NFC.

South

I think New Orleans is going to win this division again, but Atlanta will make it close.  I’ll pick Atlanta to get the second wild card because I have to pick someone.  But there are at least 6 other teams that have a real shot at it (New York, Dallas, Chicago, Carolina, Seattle, Arizona).

West

San Francisco is too talented to not win this division again, but I think it’ll be a lot closer than a lot of people are making it out to be.  I think the real question in this division is can two teams get to the playoffs.  Two years ago, this division was been all-time bad (they sent a 7-9 team to the playoffs!), but it was  much more competitive in 2011.

Seattle has 11 games in 2012 against teams that were 8-8 or worse in 2011.  If they can manage a winning record in those 11 games and pick up a few quality wins they can make a nice little run at the wildcard, but their going to have to earn it.  They aren’t getting into the playoffs this year thanks to an easy schedule.  They play San Francisco in Seattle on December 23 and could prove to be a critical game for both teams.

Arizona also has a very difficult schedule.  They play games at New England, at Green Bay, at Atlanta, and at San Francisco.  I’d be surprised if they won any of these games, and I’d be stunned if they won 2 or more.  Unfortunately, this tough schedule probably leaves them out of the playoffs.

2012 Pre-Season Rankings

Team	Rank	Ex W	SOS	SB Odds	WSEX odds	2011 Wins
Green Bay	1	11.17	23	6.7-1	6-1	15
New England	2	10.68	32	7.7-1	7-1	13
New Orleans	3	10.47	24	9.1-1	15-1	13
San Francisco	4	10.18	10	9.4-1	13-1	13
Baltimore	5	9.73	7	11.5-1	17-1	12
Pittsburgh	6	9.85	22	15.3-1	15-1	12
Detroit	7	9.15	12	21-1	30-1	10
Houston	8	9.15	29	18-1	10-1	10
Atlanta	9	9.00	30	27-1	25-1	10
Philadelphia	10	8.56	11	30-1	12-1	8
Cincinnati	11	8.54	19	38-1	45-1	9
New York (G)	12	8.01	1	44-1	17-1	9
Chicago	13	8.31	13	42-1	23-1	8
San Diego	14	8.44	26	40-1	25-1	8
New York (J)	15	8.09	15	54-1	32-1	8
Seattle	16	7.91	5	87-1	65-1	7
Tennessee	17	8.06	18	54-1	90-1	9
Dallas	18	7.85	6	35-1	25-1	8
Miami	19	7.79	21	53-1	110-1	6
Arizona	20	7.33	2	103-1	80-1	8
Denver	21	7.25	4	115-1	20-1	8
Oakland	22	7.49	27	77-1	100-1	8
Carolina	23	7.35	20	115-1	45-1	6
Buffalo	24	7.24	28	142-1	65-1	6
Kansas City	25	7.01	31	146-1	50-1	7
Washington	26	6.52	17	350-1	70-1	5
Jacksonville	27	6.41	14	710-1	160-1	5
Cleveland	28	6.17	8	1000-1	200-1	4
Minnesota	29	6.20	9	4501-1	180-1	3
Tampa Bay	30	5.70	25	2500-1	100-1	4
St. Louis	31	5.17	3	2500-1	110-1	2
Indianapolis	32	5.22	16	1600-1	120-1	2

Ex W – Average number of wins a team would have if the season was played 100,000 times.

SOS (Strength of schedule) – The average of the strength coefficients for each opponent on a team’s schedule.

SB Odds – SITW estimated odds that the team wins the Super Bowl

WSEX Odds – http://www.wsex.com odds to win Super Bowl

Predicted Standings for 2012 Season

Team: Predicted Record (Prob Make Playoffs, Super Bowl Wins Odds)

AFC East

1. New England Patriots: 11-5 (85.44%, 7.7-1) 
2. New York Jets: 8-8 (37.3%, 54-1)
3. Miami Dolphins: 8-8 (34.84%, 53-1)
4. Buffalo Bills: 7-9 (26.38%, 142-1)

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-6 (65.96%, 15.3-1)
2. Baltimore Ravens: 10-6 (68.52%, 11.5-1)
3. Cincinnati Bengals: 9-7 (41.86%, 38-1)
4. Cleveland Browns: 6-10 (7.1%, 1000-1)

AFC South

1. Houston: 9-7 (68.54%, 18-1)
2. Tennessee: 8-8 (33.04%, 54-1)
3. Jacksonville: 6-10 (11.12%, 710-1)
4. Indianapolis Colts: 5-11 (4.24%, 1600-1)

AFC West

1. San Diego Chargers: 8-8 (40.48%, 40-1)
2. Oakland Raiders: 7-9 (26.82%, 77-1)
3. Denver Broncos: 7-9 (26.84%, 115-1)
4. Kansas City Chiefs: 7-9 (21.52%,  146-1)

NFC East

1. Philadelphia Eagles: 9-7 (49.38%, 30-1)
2. New York Giants: 8-8 (41.42%, 44-1)
3. Dallas Cowboys: 8-8 (41.4%, 35-1)
4. Washington Redskins: 7-9 (13.54%, 350-1)

NFC North

1. Green Bay: 11-5 (87.42%, 6.7-1)
2. Detroit: 9-7 (52.74%, 21-1)
3. Chicago: 8-8 (38.22%, 42-1)
4. Minnesota: 6-10 (6.7%, 450-1)

NFC South

1. New Orleans: 10-6 (75.2%, 9.1-1)
2. Atlanta: 9-7 (50.36%, 27-1)
3. Carolina: 7-9 (18.08%, 115-1)
4. Tampa Bay: 6-10 (3.16%, 2500-1)

NFC West

1. San Francisco: 10-6 (75.68%, 9.4-1)
2. Seattle: 8-8 (24.26%, 87-1)
3. Arizona: 7-9 (20.44%, 103-1)
4. St. Louis: 5-11 (2%, 2500-1)

Predicted Playoffs for 2012 Season

AFC

1. New England
2. Pittsburgh
3. Houston
4. San Diego
5. Baltimore
6. Cincinnati

Houston and Baltimore advance out of the wild-card weekend.  This creates a New England vs Baltimore match-up, once again demonstrating why it might be better to be the two seed, as Pittsburgh gets a weaker opponent in Houston.  New England and Pittsburgh advance with New England representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.

NFC

1. Green Bay
2. New Orleans
3. San Francisco
4. Philadelphia
5. Detroit
6. Atlanta

San Francisco and Detroit advance to the divisional round of the playoffs where San Francisco would play New Orleans in a rematch of a very exciting playoff game from last year.  Green Bay beats Detroit and advance to the NFC championship game where they play New Orleans.  Green Bay then defeats New Orleans to go to the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl

Green Bay defeats New England in the Super Bowl.

I was looking back at my NFL rankings over the past few months, and I found something interesting in my week 16 rankings.  I actually had the NY Giants ranked higher than San Francisco.

Anyway, below are my final 2011-2012 NFL rankings.

Rankings updated as of 2/9/2012; Records updated as of 2/9/2012; CHFF rankings as of 12/28/2011

Team	Rank	Change	Record	CHFF Rank
Green Bay	1	↑	15-2	1
New England	2	↓	15-4	3
Pittsburgh	3	–	12-5	6
Baltimore	4	–	13-5	5
New Orleans	5	↑	14-4	2
Atlanta	6	↓	10-7	11
NY Giants	7	↑↑	13-7	10
NY Jets	8	↓	8-8	15
Chicago	9	↓	8-8	23
San Francisco	10	–	14-4	4
Philadelphia	11	↑	8-8	12
San Diego	12	↑	8-8	18
Detroit	13	↓↓	10-7	8
Kansas City	14	↑↑↑	7-9	26
Oakland	15	↓	8-8	14
Tennessee	16	↑↑↑↑↑↑	9-7	20
Tampa Bay	17	↓↓	4-12	31
Houston	18	↑	10-7	7
Dallas	19	↑↑	8-8	13
Miami	20	↓↓	6-10	22
Seattle	21	↓	7-9	19
Denver	22	↑↑	9-9	16
Jacksonville	23	↑↑↑↑↑↑	5-11	29
Cincinnati	24	↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓	9-8	9
Indianapolis	25	–	2-14	30
Arizona	26	↑↑	8-8	21
Buffalo	27	↓↓↓↓	6-10	24
Washington	28	↑↑	5-11	25
Minnesota	29	↓↓↓	3-13	28
St. Louis	30	↑↑	2-14	32
Cleveland	31	↓↓↓↓	4-12	27
Carolina	32	↓	6-10	17

BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.

Cheers.