NFL Predictions – Week 7
Overall Records for 2012
SU: 64-40
ATS: 57-47
O/U: 56-46
Week 7 (11-2 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)
Week 6 (6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U)
Week 5 (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U)
Week 4 (10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS, 12-2 O/U)
Week 3 (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
Week 2 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Week 7
Thursday @8:05pm
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: 49ers win 28-20
Pick: 49ers -7.5
O/U: Over 37.5
Sunday @1pm
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills
Prediction: Bills win 23-22
Pick: Titans +3.5
O/U: Under 45.5
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
Prediction: Vikings win 25-23
Pick: Cardinals +5.5
O/U: Over 40.5
Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: Colts win 23-17
Pick: Colts -3
O/U: Under 44.5
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans
Prediction: Ravens win 26-24
Pick: Ravens +6.5
O/U: Over 48
Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams
Prediction: Packers win 30-17
Pick: Packers -5.5
O/U: Over 45
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
Prediction: Cowboys win 25-21
Pick: Cowboys -2
O/U: Over 45.5
Washington Redskins at New York Giants
Prediction: Giants win 28-22
Pick: Redskins +6.5
O/U: Over 49.5
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: Saints win 32-20
Pick: Saints -2.5
O/U: Over 49
Sunday @4:25pm
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Prediction: Patriots win 35-20
Pick: Patriots -10.5
O/U: Over 47
Sunday @4:25pm
Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders
Prediction: Raiders win 21-16
Pick: Raiders -4
O/U: Under 43
Sunday @8:30pm
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Prediction: Steelers win 24-23
Pick: Bengals +2.5
O/U: Over 46
Monday @8:40pm
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Prediction: Bears win 28-26
Pick: Lions +5.5
O/U: Over 47.5
Cheers.
Week 6 QB performances reviewed via RIPPEN
RIPPEN rankings for week 6 performances:
| Player | Team | RIPPEN | QB rating |
| Flacco, J. | BAL | 38.201 | 106.9 |
| Manning, P. | DEN | 34.475 | 129.0 |
| Rodgers, A. | GB | 33.463 | 133.8 |
| Freeman, J. | TB | 33.324 | 124.7 |
| Palmer, C. | OAK | 33.153 | 102.2 |
| Wilson, R. | SEA | 30.824 | 133.7 |
| Griffin, III, R. | WAS | 26.015 | 97.2 |
| Bradford, S. | STL | 25.218 | 91.3 |
| Roethlisberger, B. | PIT | 24.023 | 87.8 |
| Tannehill, R. | MIA | 21.243 | 112.0 |
| Romo, T. | DAL | 20.028 | 97.1 |
| Manning, E. | NYG | 20.927 | 87.4 |
| Weeden, B. | CLE | 18.161 | 92.7 |
| Brady, T. | NE | 16.272 | 79.3 |
| Ponder, C. | MIN | 15.649 | 83.2 |
| Schaub, M. | HOU | 14.815 | 56.6 |
| Dalton, A. | CIN | 14.458 | 87.3 |
| Stafford, M. | DET | 13.478 | 69.8 |
| Vick, M. | PHI | 13.471 | 77.4 |
| Ryan, M. | ATL | 11.480 | 59.4 |
| Fitzpatrick, R. | BUF | 11.166 | 68.9 |
| Hasselbeck, M. | TEN | 10.428 | 75.0 |
| Luck, A. | IND | 9.097 | 51.3 |
| Sanchez, M. | NYJ | 9.089 | 109.0 |
| Smith, A. | SF | 9.038 | 43.1 |
| Rivers, P. | SD | 5.959 | 54.2 |
| Kolb, K. | ARI | 5.757 | 64.3 |
| Quinn, B. | KC | 5.571 | 48.1 |
| Skelton, J. | ARI | 3.812 | 6.2 |
Season RIPPEN rankings through six weeks of games:
| Player | Team | RIPPEN | QB rating |
| Manning, P. | DEN | 27.304 | 105.0 |
| Griffin, III, R. | WAS | 27.279 | 100.5 |
| Brady, T. | NE | 26.905 | 97.2 |
| Newton, C. | CAR | 25.630 | 80.9 |
| Rodgers, A. | GB | 24.263 | 105.4 |
| Schaub, M. | HOU | 23.978 | 91.6 |
| Ryan, M. | ATL | 23.689 | 98.8 |
| Roethlisberger, B. | PIT | 20.393 | 99.9 |
| Rivers, P. | SD | 19.697 | 85.3 |
| Flacco, J. | BAL | 19.654 | 92.0 |
| Smith, A. | SF | 19.131 | 96.6 |
| Ponder, C. | MIN | 19.091 | 92.4 |
| Cutler, J. | CHI | 18.720 | 78.7 |
| Brees, D. | NO | 18.243 | 90.7 |
| Manning, E. | NYG | 17.664 | 94.9 |
| Palmer, C. | OAK | 16.843 | 88.7 |
| Dalton, A. | CIN | 16.770 | 91.7 |
| Romo, T. | DAL | 16.380 | 82.1 |
| Locker, J. | TEN | 16.245 | 90.2 |
| Stafford, M. | DET | 15.928 | 79.2 |
| Freeman, J. | TB | 15.780 | 84.2 |
| Tannehill, R. | MIA | 14.544 | 76.5 |
| Bradford, S. | STL | 13.065 | 81.3 |
| Vick, M. | PHI | 12.533 | 77.7 |
| Wilson, R. | SEA | 11.917 | 85.6 |
| Luck, A. | IND | 10.782 | 72.0 |
| Sanchez, M. | NYJ | 10.761 | 70.9 |
| Fitzpatrick, R. | BUF | 10.465 | 81.5 |
| Weeden, B. | CLE | 10.417 | 68.1 |
| Kolb, K. | ARI | 8.357 | 86.1 |
| Cassel, M. | KC | 6.678 | 66.2 |
| Hasselbeck, M. | TEN | 6.678 | 74.1 |
| Gabbert, B. | JAX | 6.678 | 73.3 |
Cheers.
NFL Rankings – 10/17/2012
StatsInTheWild NFL rankings as of October 17, 2012 at 12:34pm. SOS=strength of schedule
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | ESPN | TeamRankings.com | SOS | Points Diff |
| Chicago | 1 | ↑1 | 4-1 | 6 | 1 | 8 | +78 |
| San Francisco | 2 | ↓1 | 4-2 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +58 |
| Atlanta | 3 | ↑4 | 6-0 | 1 | 2 | 25 | +58 |
| Houston | 4 | ↓1 | 5-1 | 2 | 4 | 21 | +58 |
| NY Giants | 5 | ↑7 | 4-2 | 3 | 3 | 17 | +64 |
| Arizona | 6 | ↓1 | 4-2 | 11 | 12 | 1 | +13 |
| Seattle | 7 | ↑2 | 4-2 | 9 | 5 | 5 | +17 |
| Minnesota | 8 | ↓4 | 4-2 | 10 | 11 | 7 | +29 |
| New England | 9 | ↓3 | 3-3 | 7 | 8 | 10 | +51 |
| Green Bay | 10 | ↑1 | 3-3 | 8 | 7 | 6 | +19 |
| Baltimore | 11 | ↓1 | 5-1 | 4 | 9 | 26 | +43 |
| St. Louis | 12 | ↓4 | 3-3 | 20 | 10 | 2 | -1 |
| Washington | 13 | ↑9 | 3-3 | 15 | 17 | 13 | +5 |
| Detroit | 14 | ↓1 | 2-3 | 19 | 19 | 4 | -11 |
| Miami | 15 | ↓1 | 3-3 | 17 | 14 | 16 | +3 |
| Denver | 16 | ↑2 | 3-3 | 12 | 13 | 31 | +32 |
| NY Jets | 17 | – | 3-3 | 23 | 18 | 12 | -8 |
| Dallas | 18 | ↓2 | 2-3 | 18 | 15 | 9 | -25 |
| Tampa Bay | 19 | ↑6 | 2-3 | 22 | 24 | 23 | +19 |
| Philadelphia | 20 | – | 3-3 | 13 | 20 | 11 | -22 |
| Cincinnati | 21 | ↓2 | 3-3 | 21 | 21 | 28 | -14 |
| Buffalo | 22 | ↑2 | 3-3 | 25 | 16 | 15 | -55 |
| San Diego | 23 | ↓2 | 3-3 | 16 | 27 | 32 | +11 |
| Pittsburgh | 24 | ↓1 | 2-3 | 14 | 23 | 27 | +1 |
| Carolina | 25 | ↑3 | 1-4 | 28 | 28 | 19 | -33 |
| New Orleans | 26 | ↑1 | 1-4 | 24 | 31 | 20 | -13 |
| Indianapolis | 27 | ↓12 | 2-3 | 26 | 22 | 22 | -45 |
| Jacksonville | 28 | ↓2 | 1-4 | 31 | 29 | 18 | -73 |
| Cleveland | 29 | ↑3 | 1-5 | 30 | 26 | 24 | -29 |
| Tennessee | 30 | ↓1 | 2-4 | 27 | 25 | 14 | -90 |
| Oakland | 31 | ↓1 | 1-4 | 29 | 30 | 30 | -61 |
| Kansas City | 32 | ↓1 | 1-5 | 32 | 32 | 29 | -79 |
Best
Best undefeated team: Atlanta
Best 5 win team: Houston
Best 4 win team: Chicago
Best 3 win team: New England
Best 2 win team: Detroit
Best 1 win team: Carolina
Worst
Worst 5 win team: Baltimore
Worst 4 win team: Minnesota
Worst 3 win team: San Diego
Worst 2 win team: Tennessee
Worst 1 win team: Kansas City
Worst team in the league: Kansas City
Most
Most under-rated team: (#12) St. Louis (ESPN has them 20)
Most over-rated team: (#24) Pittsburgh (ESPN has them 14)
Cheers.
R at 12000 cores
From this article:
We have done, for example, principal components analyses via singular value decomposition with matrices as large as 100,000×100,000 in under an hour.
Wow.
NFL Graph Theory
So far this year:
New England beat Tennessee; Tennessee beat Detroit; Detroit beat Philadelphia, Philadelphia beat the NY Giants; the Giants beat Carolina; Carolina beat New Orleans; New Orleans beat San Diego; San Diego beat Oakland; Oakland beat Pittsburgh; Pittsburgh beat the NY Jets beat Indianapolis; Indianapolis beat Minnesota; Minnesota beat San Francisco; SAn Francisco beat Green Bay; Green Bay beat Chicago; Chicago beat St. Louis; and St. Louis beat Arizona; who beat the Patriots.
Here’s a directed graph of the entire NFL so far this year with the cycle I described about highlighted in think black edges. Node size is proportional to the number of team wins, and the colored groups are the divisions.
Cheers.
NY Times: New Estimate Raises Civil War Death Toll
I just found this sitting in my drafts folder. It’s from May:
New Estimate Raises Civil War Death Toll
Cheers.
NCAA Football Rankings – 10/14/2012
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What it means to be a college football coach
From a Deadspin Article:
Being a Division I college football coach is hard. You get paid millions of dollars, you get to bully your post-adolescent free labor into doing whatever you want them to do, and you get painted as a demigod by football-obsessed towns and campuses. It’s a tough gig.
Cheers.
I briefly investigated how to draw curved arrows in R. Here’s a small piece of the figure that I ultimately created:
View original post 145 more words
Little Data and Sun Tzu
I particularly liked this comment from Martin Romero on Andrew Gelman’s blog: 
Stats in the Wild 