• StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of September 11, 2012 at 12:18pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

    Team Rank Change Record Projected Record Prob of making playoffs SOS Run Diff
    Texas 1 – 83-57 94-68 99.4% 11 +116
    NYY 2 – 79-61 90-72 87.4% 5 +92
    Tampa Bay 3 – 77-63 88-74 46.4% 7 +78
    Washington 4 ↑1 87-54 98-64 99.9% 25 +132
    Oakland 5 ↓1 80-60 90-72 74.7% 8 +83
    LA Angels 6 – 77-64 86-76 25.0% 6 +65
    Atlanta 7 ↑3 81-61 91-71 99.6% 19 +82
    Chi WSox 8 – 76-64 86-76 82.1% 14 +62
    Baltimore 9 ↑2 78-62 89-73 71.7% 3 -22
    Cincinnati 10 ↓1 85-57 95-67 99.9% 30 +82
    Detroit 11 ↓4 73-67 84-78 19.7% 13 +32
    SF 12 ↑1 79-62 89-73 98.6% 26 +43
    St. Louis 13 ↓1 75-66 84-78 47.7% 29 +43
    Seattle 14 – 67-74 75-87 0% 2 -20
    Toronto 15 ↑2 64-75 74-88 0% 1 -42
    Boston 16 ↓1 63-78 72-90 0% 4 -18
    LA Dodgers 17 ↓1 74-67 83-79 25.0% 23 +17
    Arizona 18 – 69-72 78-84 0.5% 24 +26
    Philadelphia 19 ↑2 70-71 80-82 2.2% 20 -8
    Pittsburgh 20 ↓1 72-68 82-80 24.9% 27 0
    Milwaukee 21 ↑1
    70-71 79-83 1.5% 28 +33
    Kansas City 22 ↑1 63-77 74-88 0% 12 -45
    NY Mets 23 ↓3 65-76 74-88 0% 15 -46
    San Diego 24 – 67-75 75-87 0% 22 -38
    Minnesota 25 – 59-82 68-94 0% 10 -101
    Miami 26 – 63-79 71-91 0% 16 -94
    Cleveland 27 – 59-82 68-94 0% 9 -172
    Colorado 28 – 57-83 67-95 0% 17 -96
    Chi Cubs 29 – 55-86 64-98 0% 21 -121
    Houston 30 – 44-97 52-110 0% 18 -204

    Cheers.

  • Dave Cameron over at FanGraphs wrote an interesting article about 2012 payroll and wins.  In it, he used a scatterplot, which I assume was made with excel.  I’d like to try to persuade everyone to stop making graphics in excel.  I’m probably a little bit biased, but R with the ggplot2 package is much, much better.  (And it’s easy!) I present to you below, my entire argument for why R with ggplot2 is better than excel:

    Here is the code for making this graph

    Cheers.

  • To most people, statistics means plugging numbers into an advanced calculator that spits out values, without much thought involved. Those people don’t work with data.

    -Nathan Yau

     

    Cheres.

  • My favorite critique of my article from Shark974:

    Translation: Deadspin is shit and biased and wants to ban the NFL. Nothing more.

    Sorry but you know it’s true. Studies these days are worth the paper they’re printed on, having been infiltrated by liberals (probably a few forests have been sacrificed printing fake global warming studies by liberals).

    Also, you go through all that trouble to “prove”, drum roll please, baseball players are “no more likely” to die than FB players.

    Hmm, given the notion out there that FB is a deathsport or something, I’d call that alone a big win for the NFL. The way Deadspin chose to spin and headline this article says a lot about their obvious bias. I suspect the author votes for Democrats, as well (liberals are much more likely to be both illogical and extremely biased in conducting studies).

    But dont worry, we’ve got liberals on the case, I am sure plenty of fake lies, I mean, scientific studies, are coming soon that prove playing in the NFL rapes your dog and gives you cancer, to be shouted from the rooftops everywhere by the liberal media. Again, look to the global warming precedent.

    The more I read this, the more I appreciate what a work of are it really is.

    Cheers.

  • The crude death rate, for well known reasons, is not a good measure, because it is quite seriously affected by differences in age composition.  Standardized death rates, on the other hand, have the disadvantage that they depend on an arbitrarily selected standard population.

    –Dublin, L.I. and Lotka, A.J. “Use of the Life Table in Vital Statistics.” American Journal of Public Health.  Vol. 27, May, 1937.

    Cheers.

  • StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of September 4, 2012 at 12:18pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

    Team Rank Change Record Projected Record Prob of making playoffs SOS Run Diff
    Texas 1 ↑1 80-54 95-67 99.3% 11 +121
    NYY 2 ↓1 76-58 90-72 87.4% 6 +86
    Tampa Bay 3 – 74-61 87-75 43.4% 7 +78
    Oakland 4 ↑1 76-58 89-73 69.2% 8 +79
    Washington 5 ↓1 82-52 97-65 99.9% 25 +114
    LA Angels 6 ↑4 72-63 84-78 7.9% 5 +50
    Detroit 7 ↑2 72-62 86-76 53.8% 13 +37
    Chi WSox 8 ↓1 73-61 87-75 66.2% 14 +66
    Cincinnati 9 ↓1 82-54 95-67 99.9% 30 +84
    Atlanta 10 ↓4 76-59 89-73 96.0% 22 +82
    Baltimore 11 ↑1 75-59 88-74 72.8% 3 -31
    St. Louis 12 ↑1 70-64 85-77 44.5% 29 +97
    SF 13 ↑5 77-58 90-72 96.8% 26 +43
    Seattle 14 ↑1 66-70 77-85 0% 2 -9
    Boston 15 ↓4
    62-74 73-89 0% 4 -9
    LA Dodgers 16 – 73-63 85-77 34.4% 24 +28
    Toronto 17 ↓3 60-74 72-90 0% 1 -41
    Arizona 18 ↓1 66-70 76-84 0.1% 23 +23
    Pittsburgh 19 – 70-64 84-78 27.4% 28 +9
    NY Mets 20 ↑1 64-71 76-86 0.1% 15 -28
    Philadelphia 21 ↑1
    65-70 78-84 0% 20 -20
    Milwaukee 22 ↑3 65-69 77-85 0.7% 27 +19
    Kansas City 23 ↓3 60-74 73-89 0% 12 -56
    San Diego 24 ↑3 62-74 73-89 0% 21 -56
    Minnesota 25 – 55-80 67-95 0% 10 -106
    Miami 26 – 60-75 71-91 0% 16 -96
    Cleveland 27 ↓4 57-78 68-94 0% 9 -157
    Colorado 28 ↑1 55-78 67-95 0% 18 -95
    Chi Cubs 29 ↓1 51-83 63-99 0% 19 -115
    Houston 30 – 42-93 52-110 0% 17 -197
  • StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of September 4, 2012 at 12:18pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

    Team Rank Change Record Projected Record Prob of making playoffs SOS Run Diff
    Texas 1 ↑1 80-54 95-67 99.3% 11 +121
    NYY 2 ↓1 76-58 90-72 87.4% 6 +86
    Tampa Bay 3 – 74-61 87-75 43.4% 7 +78
    Oakland 4 ↑1 76-58 89-73 69.2% 8 +79
    Washington 5 ↓1 82-52 97-65 99.9% 25 +114
    LA Angels 6 ↑4 72-63 84-78 7.9% 5 +50
    Detroit 7 ↑2 72-62 86-76 53.8% 13 +37
    Chi WSox 8 ↓1 73-61 87-75 66.2% 14 +66
    Cincinnati 9 ↓1 82-54 95-67 99.9% 30 +84
    Atlanta 10 ↓4 76-59 89-73 96.0% 22 +82
    Baltimore 11 ↑1 75-59 88-74 72.8% 3 -31
    St. Louis 12 ↑1 70-64 85-77 44.5% 29 +97
    SF 13 ↑5 77-58 90-72 96.8% 26 +43
    Seattle 14 ↑1 66-70 77-85 0% 2 -9
    Boston 15 ↓4 62-74 73-89 0% 4 -9
    LA Dodgers 16 – 73-63 85-77 34.4% 24 +28
    Toronto 17 ↓3 60-74 72-90 0% 1 -41
    Arizona 18 ↓1 66-70 76-84 0.1% 23 +23
    Pittsburgh 19 – 70-64 84-78 27.4% 28 +9
    NY Mets 20 ↑1 64-71 76-86 0.1% 15 -28
    Philadelphia 21 ↑1 65-70 78-84 0% 20 -20
    Milwaukee 22 ↑3 65-69 77-85 0.7% 27 +19
    Kansas City 23 ↓3 60-74 73-89 0% 12 -56
    San Diego 24 ↑3 62-74 73-89 0% 21 -56
    Minnesota 25 – 55-80 67-95 0% 10 -106
    Miami 26 – 60-75 71-91 0% 16 -96
    Cleveland 27 ↓4 57-78 68-94 0% 9 -157
    Colorado 28 ↑1 55-78 67-95 0% 18 -95
    Chi Cubs 29 ↓1 51-83 63-99 0% 19 -115
    Houston 30 – 42-93 52-110 0% 17 -197

    Cheers.

  • StatsInTheWild MLB rankings as of September 4, 2012 at 12:18pm.  SOS=strength of schedule

    Team Rank Change Record ESPN TeamRankings.com SOS Run Diff
    Texas 1 ↑1 80-54 3 1 11 +121
    NYY 2 ↓1 76-58 4 3 6 +86
    Tampa Bay 3 – 74-61 9 5 7 +78
    Oakland 4 ↑1 76-58 5 2 8 +79
    Washington 5 ↓1 82-52 2 4 25 +114
    LA Angels 6 ↑4 72-63 13 7 5 +50
    Detroit 7 ↑2 72-62 12 9 13 +37
    Chi WSox 8 ↓1 73-61 10 10 14 +66
    Cincinnati 9 ↓1 82-54 1 8 30 +84
    Atlanta 10 ↓4 76-59 8 11 22 +82
    Baltimore 11 ↑1 75-59 7 6 3 -31
    St. Louis 12 ↑1 70-64 11 14 29 +97
    SF 13 ↑5 77-58 6 12 26 +43
    Seattle 14 ↑1 66-70 18 13 2 -9
    Boston 15 ↓4
    62-74 21 16 4 -9
    LA Dodgers 16 – 73-63 15 15 24 +28
    Toronto 17 ↓3 60-74 23 17 1 -41
    Arizona 18 ↓1 66-70 16 21 23 +23
    Pittsburgh 19 – 70-64 14 18 28 +9
    NY Mets 20 ↑1 64-71 20 22 15 -28
    Philadelphia 21 ↑1
    65-70 17 19 20 -20
    Milwaukee 22 ↑3 65-69 19 23 27 +19
    Kansas City 23 ↓3 60-74 24 20 12 -56
    San Diego 24 ↑3 62-74 22 24 21 -56
    Minnesota 25 – 55-80 26 25 10 -106
    Miami 26 – 60-75 25 27 16 -96
    Cleveland 27 ↓4 57-78 28 26 9 -157
    Colorado 28 ↑1 55-78 27 28 18 -95
    Chi Cubs 29 ↓1 51-83 29 29 19 -115
    Houston 30 – 42-93 30 30 17 -197

    Past Rankings:

    8/20/2012

    8/14/2012

    8/6/2012

    7/23/2012

    7/9/2012

    7/2/2012

    6/25/2012

    6/19/2012

    6/9/2012

    5/28/2012

    5/23/2012

    5/14/2012

    5/7/2012

    4/30/2012

    4/23/2012

    4/16/2012

    4/13/2012

    Cheers.

  • Week 1 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)

    Wednesday @8:30pm

    Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

    Prediction: Dallas wins 24-23

    Pick: Cowboys +3.5

    O/U: Over 47

    Sunday @1pm

    Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears

    Prediction: Indianapolis wins 22-21

    Pick: Colts +10

    O/U: Over 41.5

    Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns

    Prediction: Eagles win 24-16

    Pick: Eagles -8.5

    O/U: Under 41

    Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

    Prediction: Jets win 23-20

    Pick: Jets -3

    O/U: Over 41

    Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints

    Prediction: Saints win 28-17

    Pick: Saints -9.5

    O/U: Under 49.5

    New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans

    Prediction: Patriots win 27-20

    Pick: Patriots -6.5

    O/U: Under 47.5

    Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings

    Prediction: Vikings win 23-20

    Pick: Jaguars +4.5

    O/U: Over 38

    Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans

    Prediction: Texans win 23-21

    Pick: Dolphins +9.5

    O/U: Over 43

    St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions

    Prediction: Lions win 21-16

    Pick: Rams +9

    O/U: Under 46.5

    Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs

    Prediction: Falcons win 24-17

    Pick: Falcons -1

    O/U: Under 41.5

    Sunday @4:25pm

    Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

    Prediction: Cardinals win 22-19

    Pick: Cardinals +1.5

    O/U: Under 40.5

    San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

    Prediction: Packers wins 27-19

    Pick: Packers -5.5

    O/U: Over 45

    Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    Prediction: Panthers wins 21-20

    Pick: Buccaneers +2.5

    O/U: Under 46.5

     Sunday @8:20

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

    Prediction: Steelers win 23-20

    Pick: Steelers Even

    O/U: Under 44

    Monday @7pm

    Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

    Prediction: Ravens win 23-18

    Pick: Bengals +6

    O/U: Over 40.5

    Monday @10:15pm

    San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders

    Prediction: Chargers win 27-19

    Pick: Chargers -1.5

    O/U: Under 47.5

     

    Cheers.