Category Archives: Football
One More Arbitrary NCAA Football Ranking Scheme for the BCS – 11/20/2011
Rankings as of 11/20/2011. Previous weeks rankings here.
(I’ve made a few small corrections from my original post; I found a mistake in the data. For instance, Michigan State is now in the top 25 at number 24.)
Ok. I know. This isn’t going to look good, but…….I still have Oklahoma State ranked 1 even after their loss to Iowa State. (A defense of my rankings) They nearly survived the Big 12 gauntlet undefeated, which would have been a most impressive feat. I’m not sure I can defend this, but since none of the BCS rankings have to defend their methodology then neither should I.
Big movers this week include Baylor, Virginia Tech, and Stanford who are all up 4 spots to 7, 8, and 9, respectively. The biggest move up this week is Iowa State, who jumps 5 spots to 17.
Clemson falls 8 spots after its loss to North Carolina State and they end up 16. Likewise, Nebraska falls 7 spots to number 23 after losing to Michigan.
Cheers.
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | BCS Rank |
| Oklahoma State | 1 | 0 | 10-1 | 4 |
| LSU | 2 | 0 | 11-0 | 1 |
| Kansas State | 3 | 1 | 9-2 | 11 |
| Oklahoma | 4 | -1 | 8-2 | 9 |
| Alabama | 5 | 0 | 10-1 | 2 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 0 | 10-1 | 3 |
| Baylor | 7 | 4 | 7-3 | 18 |
| Virginia Tech | 8 | 4 | 10-1 | 5 |
| Stanford | 9 | 4 | 10-1 | 6 |
| South Carolina | 10 | -1 | 9-2 | 12 |
| Oregon | 11 | -4 | 9-2 | 10 |
| USC | 12 | 2 | 9-2 | NR |
| Texas | 13 | -3 | 6-4 | 25 |
| Georgia | 14 | 1 | 9-2 | 13 |
| Houston | 15 | 2 | 11-0 | 8 |
| Clemson | 16 | -8 | 9-2 | 17 |
| Iowa State | 17 | 5 | 6-4 | NR |
| Michigan | 18 | 0 | 9-2 | 15 |
| Penn State | 19 | 0 | 9-2 | 19 |
| Texas A&M | 20 | 0 | 6-5 | NR |
| Boise State | 21 | 2 | 9-1 | 7 |
| Missouri | 22 | 2 | 6-5 | NR |
| Nebraska | 23 | -7 | 8-3 | 21 |
| Michigan State | 24 | 1 | 9-2 | 14 |
| Auburn | 25 | -4 | 7-4 | 24 |
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
One More Arbitrary NCAA Football Ranking Scheme for the BCS – 11/13/2011
Rankings as of 11/13/2011. Previous weeks rankings here.
No changes at the top. I’ve still got Oklahoma State number 1, as I have all season. LSU comes in at number 2 and Oklahoma at number 3. Texas falls 4 spots after failing to score a touchdown in their loss to Missouri. Oregon jumps to 7 after it’s victory over previously undefeated Stanford, who falls to 13.
The two biggest movers upward were Nebraska and Michigan. Nebraska defeated Penn State to climb 8 spots to 16 and Michigan beat a rapidly fading Illinois team to climb 7 spots to 18.
Texas A&M and Auburn both fell 6 spots to 20 and 21, respectively. Texas A&M lost in 4 OT to Kansas State while Auburn fell to Georgia. Missouri and Michigan State squeak their way into the top 25 at 24 and 25, respectively, as Texas Tech and Georgia Tech drop out.
By conference, I have 8 Big 12 teams in the top 25 and 6 SEC teams. The Big 10 has 4 teams, the Pac 12 gets 3, and the ACC has 2. Mountain West and Conference USA have one team each.
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | BCS Rank |
| Oklahoma State | 1 | 0 | 10-0 | 2 |
| LSU | 2 | 0 | 10-0 | 1 |
| Oklahoma | 3 | 0 | 8-1 | 5 |
| Kansas State | 4 | 1 | 8-2 | 13 |
| Alabama | 5 | -1 | 9-1 | 3 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1 | 9-1 | 6 |
| Oregon | 7 | 2 | 9-1 | 4 |
| Clemson | 8 | 2 | 9-1 | 7 |
| South Carolina | 9 | 2 | 8-2 | 12 |
| Texas | 10 | -4 | 6-3 | 23 |
| Baylor | 11 | 2 | 6-3 | 22 |
| Virginia Tech | 12 | 0 | 9-1 | 8 |
| Stanford | 13 | -5 | 9-1 | 9 |
| USC | 14 | 4 | 8-2 | NR |
| Georgia | 15 | 2 | 8-2 | 14 |
| Nebraska | 16 | 8 | 8-2 | 16 |
| Houston | 17 | 2 | 10-0 | 11 |
| Michigan | 18 | 7 | 8-2 | 18 |
| Penn State | 19 | -3 | 8-2 | 21 |
| Texas A&M | 20 | -6 | 6-3 | NR |
| Auburn | 21 | -6 | 6-4 | 24 |
| Iowa State | 22 | -1 | 5-4 | NR |
| Boise State | 23 | -3 | 8-1 | 10 |
| Missouri | 24 | 2 | 5-5 | NR |
| Michigan State | 25 | 3 | 8-2 | 15 |
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
NFL Playoff Projections After Week 9
New Projected 1 seed in the AFC with Baltimore and New England drops to 2 seed. The AFC North is scheduled to get 3 teams into the playoffs. On the NFC side Green Bay is still projected to be the 1 seed with San Francisco the 2. And, like the AFC, the NFC North is scheduled to get three teams into the playoffs. Has that ever happened before? Two divisons getting 3 teams into the playoffs? I have to guess no.
| Seed | AFC | NFC |
| 1 | Baltimore | Green Bay |
| 2 | New England | San Francisco |
| 3 | Houston | NY Giants |
| 4 | San Diego | Atlanta |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | Detroit |
| 6 | Cincinnati | Chicago |
Cheers.
Wisconsin Badgers
Let’s get something straight right now. Wisconsin is not a top 25 football team. 4 out of the 6 BCS computer polls have them outside of the top 25 and the other two polls have them at 24 and 16. The clowns (meant with the utmost respect) who vote in the human polls have the Badgers ranked at 14 in both polls. Let’s take a look at why the computers are right:
Wisconsin is 7-2 overall and 3-2 in the perennially (wildly) over-rated Big 10 (the conference with the worst division names in all of sports). Wisconsin won its first 6 games over UNLV, Oregon State, Northern Illinois, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Indiana. While Nebraska is a very impressive win, the 6 other teams they have beaten are currently 2-6 (MWC), 2-7 (PAC12), 6-3 (MAC), 5-4 (FCS-Great West), 1-9 (Big 10), 4-5 (Big 10). I’m not impressed by any of those wins. The three other games Wisconsin has played (Nebraska (7-2) , Michigan State (7-2), and Ohio State(6-3)), they have 1 win. The W-L record of the their 7 victories is 27-36. And if you remove Nebraska (which, as mentioned before, is actually an impressive win) there W-L for opponents in victories is 20-34.
Jeff Sagarin has Wisconsin’s strength of schedule ranked at 87. The only BCS top 25 teams with weaker schedules that that are Houston (112), who plays in Conference USA, and Cincinnati (95) who plays in the Big “We still seriously get an automatic BCS bid?” East, (which sent a 4 loss UConn team to the Fiesta Bowl last year). (“Most of the attention before the game focused on Oklahoma’s poor performance in past BCS games as well as Connecticut’s difficulties in selling tickets“.)
So, please Harris poll voters, I implore you to stop voting for teams like Wisconsin who don’t deserve to be in the top 25. (And while you’re at it, stop voting for Cincinnati, too.)
Cheers.
1 vs 2
Alabama hosted LSU yesterday in what was billed as number 1 versus number 2. This is a great way to market a football game, but it completely ignores reality. 6 out of 7 BCS computer polls, which the BCS itself has selected to rank college football teams, had Oklahoma State ranked number 1 heading into the LSU-Alabama game, and the lone dissenting system had Oklahoma State ranked number 2. That means there were 0 computer rankings that had LSU-Alabama as a 1 vs 2 game. I guess it’s just harder to market a 2 vs 3 game.
Cheers.
One More Arbitrary NCAA Football Ranking Scheme for the BCS – 11/6/2011
Rankings as of 11/6/2011. Previous weeks rankings are here.
What a game last night between LSU and Alabama! #FieldGoalsAreAwesome
I’ll update the BCS ranks when the new ones come out.
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | BCS Rank |
| Oklahoma State | 1 | 0 | 9-0 | |
| LSU | 2 | 1 | 9-0 | |
| Oklahoma | 3 | 2 | 8-1 | |
| Alabama | 4 | 0 | 8-1 | |
| Kansas St. | 5 | -3 | 7-2 | |
| Texas | 6 | 6 | 6-2 | |
| Arkansas | 7 | 3 | 8-1 | |
| Stanford | 8 | 0 | 9-0 | |
| Oregon | 9 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| Clemson | 10 | -4 | 8-1 | |
| South Carolina | 11 | -2 | 7-2 | |
| Virginia Tech | 12 | 2 | 8-1 | |
| Baylor | 13 | 3 | 5-3 | |
| Texas A&M | 14 | -7 | 5-4 | |
| Auburn | 15 | 4 | 6-3 | |
| Penn State | 16 | 1 | 8-1 | |
| Georgia | 17 | 7 | 7-2 | |
| USC | 18 | -3 | 7-2 | |
| Houston | 19 | 6 | 9-0 | |
| Boise State | 20 | 1 | 8-0 | |
| Iowa State | 21 | 11 | 5-4 | |
| Georgia Tech | 22 | 0 | 7-2 | |
| Texas Tech | 23 | -12 | 5-4 | |
| Nebraska | 24 | -6 | 7-2 | |
| Michigan | 25 | -5 | 7-2 |
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
One More Arbitrary NCAA Football Ranking Scheme for the BCS – 11/1/2011
Rankings as of 11/1/2011. The previous week’s rankings are here.
I apologize for not getting these rankings out until today (Tuesday), but we’re likely without power until Friday or Saturday. I’m currently in the Western New England College University Law School library, which has power and heat. Anyway……
There are 5 teams in the SITW top 25 that are not in the BCS top 25 (SITW Ranking): Texas A&M (15), Texas Tech (18), USC (19), Baylor (21), Missouri (25).
Likewise, the five teams in the BCS top 25 that are not in the SITW top 25 are: Arizona State (26), Wisconsin (30), Michigan State (31), West Virginia (32), and Southern Miss (39).
Based on the disparity between the SITW rankings and the BCS rankings, the most over-rated top 25 BCS team is Boise State, followed by Michigan State and Southern Miss. The most under-rated team is Texas, followed by Kansas State, Auburn, Oklahoma, and Clemson.
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | BCS Rank |
| Oklahoma State | 1 | 0 | 8-0 | 3 |
| Oklahoma | 2 | 3 | 7-1 | 8 |
| LSU | 3 | 0 | 8-0 | 1 |
| Alabama | 4 | 0 | 8-0 | 2 |
| Kansas State | 5 | -3 | 7-1 | 9 |
| Stanford | 6 | 2 | 8-0 | 5 |
| Clemson | 7 | -1 | 8-1 | 16 |
| South Carolina | 8 | 1 | 7-1 | 6 |
| Arkansas | 9 | 1 | 7-1 | 13 |
| Virginia Tech | 10 | 4 | 8-1 | 10 |
| Texas | 11 | 1 | 5-2 | 20 |
| Oregon | 12 | 1 | 7-1 | 24 |
| Nebraska | 13 | 5 | 7-1 | 7 |
| Penn State | 14 | 3 | 8-1 | 12 |
| Texas A&M | 15 | -8 | 5-3 | NR |
| Michigan | 16 | 4 | 7-1 | NR |
| Auburn | 17 | 2 | 6-3 | 19 |
| Texas Tech | 18 | -7 | 5-3 | 14 |
| USC | 19 | -4 | 6-2 | 23 |
| Georgia Tech | 20 | 2 | 7-2 | 18 |
| Baylor | 21 | -5 | 4-3 | 4 |
| Boise State | 22 | -1 | 7-0 | NR |
| Georgia | 23 | 1 | 6-2 | 15 |
| Houston | 24 | 1 | 8-0 | 22 |
| Missouri | 25 | 5 | 4-4 | 17 |
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
One More Arbitrary NCAA Football Ranking Scheme for the BCS – 10/23/2011
Rankings as of 10/23/2011. Previous weeks rankings here.
There are 3 teams ranked in the BCS top 25 who aren’t in my top 25. They are Michigan State, Arizona State, and West Virginia.
There are three teams in my top 25 who aren’t in the BCS top 25. They are USC, Baylor, and Georgia Tech.
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | BCS Rank |
| Oklahoma State | 1 | 0 | 7-0 | 3 |
| Kansas State | 2 | 1 | 7-0 | 8 |
| LSU | 3 | 1 | 8-0 | 1 |
| Alabama | 4 | 1 | 8-0 | 2 |
| Oklahoma | 5 | -3 | 6-1 | 9 |
| Clemson | 6 | 0 | 8-0 | 5 |
| Texas A&M | 7 | 1 | 5-2 | 16 |
| Stanford | 8 | 2 | 7-0 | 6 |
| South Carolina | 9 | 0 | 6-1 | 13 |
| Arkansas | 10 | 2 | 6-1 | 10 |
| Texas Tech | 11 | 4 | 5-2 | 20 |
| Texas | 12 | -5 | 4-2 | 24 |
| Oregon | 13 | 7 | 6-1 | 7 |
| Virginia Tech | 14 | 2 | 7-1 | 12 |
| USC | 15 | 4 | 6-1 | NR |
| Baylor | 16 | -5 | 4-2 | NR |
| Penn State | 17 | 1 | 7-1 | 19 |
| Nebraska | 18 | 4 | 6-1 | 14 |
| Auburn | 19 | -2 | 5-3 | 23 |
| Michigan | 20 | 1 | 6-1 | 18 |
| Boise State | 21 | 4 | 7-0 | 4 |
| Georgia Tech | 22 | -9 | 6-2 | NR |
| Wisconsin | 23 | -9 | 6-1 | 15 |
| Georgia | 24 | 4 | 5-2 | 22 |
| Houston | 25 | 10 | 7-0 | 17 |
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
2011 NFL Chernoff Faces
At the end of the 2010 NFL football season I did some Chernoff faces for the teams’ final statistics here.
Here are similar Chernoff faces for the 2011 season through week 6. (And here are my rankings through week 6.)
Offensive yardage affects the size and shape of the face and defensive yardage affect the size and shape of the hair. The number of wins a team has affects the size of the mouth and whether or not the mouth is smiling. The eyes represent penalties, the nose is defensive sacks, and the ears are defensive forced turnovers. The ideal face is found in the lower right corner of the graph.
Two quick comments:
-Oakland has a penalty problem.
-Carolina seems out of place on the graph. The Carolina face is very similar to the New Orleans face; the difference appears to be the eyes (penalties) and the nose (sacks).
Cheers.
One More Arbitrary NCAA Football Ranking Scheme for the BCS
Rankings as of 10/16/2011. Previous weeks rankings here.
| Team | Rank | Change |
| Oklahoma State | 1 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 2 | 0 |
| Kansas State | 3 | 0 |
| LSU | 4 | 1 |
| Alabama | 5 | -1 |
| Clemson | 6 | 1 |
| Texas | 7 | -1 |
| Texas A&M | 8 | 8 |
| South Carolina | 9 | 4 |
| Stanford | 10 | 4 |
| Baylor | 11 | -3 |
| Arkansas | 12 | 3 |
| Georgia Tech | 13 | -4 |
| Wisconsin | 14 | 6 |
| Texas Tech | 15 | -5 |
| Virginia Tech | 16 | 5 |
| Auburn | 17 | 5 |
| Penn State | 18 | 7 |
| USC | 19 | 5 |
| Oregon | 20 | 6 |
| Michigan | 21 | -9 |
| Nebraska | 22 | 1 |
| Illinois | 23 | -12 |
| Missouri | 24 | 11 |
| Boise State | 25 | 11 |
BCS: If you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
Stats in the Wild 