NFL Playoff Projections After Week 11
| Seed | AFC | NFC |
| 1 | Pittsburgh | Green Bay |
| 2 | New England | San Francisco |
| 3 | Houston | New Orleans |
| 4 | Oakland | NY Giants |
| 5 | Cincinnati | Chicago |
| 6 | Baltimore | Dallas |
Cheers.
Defending my rankings
Ok. So I’m not sure I can defend my rankings, but I am going to try. Even after losing to Iowa State, I still have Oklahoma State ranked number 1. Let me try to explain what I think it going on.
The Big 12 won a lot of their non-conference games at the beginning of the season, so I’ve had them ranked as the best conference for most of the way. What this means is that since most of the teams are ranked so high in the Big 12, that a loss to one of those really good teams doesn’t hurt that much
Ok State won it’s first three games easily over Louisiana-Lafayette, Arizona, and Tulsa. Then they had to play 9 straight conference games in the toughest conference in the country. Their only real weak game in conference play is Kansas. They’ve beat Texas A&M, Texas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas Tech, and Baylor before falling to Iowa State. That’s impressive. According to my rankings, all 6 of these teams are top 25. And their one loss is to a team that I had ranked at 22 before they beat Ok State (I have Iowa State at 17 now). They also beat Tulsa, who I have ranked 29th.
LSU’s conference wins are against Mississippi, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, Auburn, and Alabama. (Georgia and South Carolina are noticeably absent from LSU’s schedule.) The first 6 teams have a combined record of 29-38. Then they have that big win over Alabama.
Their non-conference games were against Oregon, West Virginia, Northwestern State, and Western Kentucky. The Oregon win is impressive, but the other three games are jokes. West Virginia is currently third in the Big “We still really get an automatic BCS berth?” East, and LSU shouldn’t even be allowed to schedule games against Northwestern State and Western Kentucky. As I see it, LSU has three wins over top 25 teams (Alabama, Oregon, and Auburn).
In review, I have Ok State at 6-1 against top 25 teams and LSU at 3-0. My ranking system rewards teams for playing tough games and Oklahoma State has had one of the toughest schedules in the country this season week in and week out, while LSU the occasional tough opponent. From top to bottom the Big 12 is much deeper than the SEC.
So that’s my attempt at a defense. I guess I’ll have to wait until the bowl game results to see if I am right.
Cheers.
One More Arbitrary NCAA Football Ranking Scheme for the BCS – 11/20/2011
Rankings as of 11/20/2011. Previous weeks rankings here.
(I’ve made a few small corrections from my original post; I found a mistake in the data. For instance, Michigan State is now in the top 25 at number 24.)
Ok. I know. This isn’t going to look good, but…….I still have Oklahoma State ranked 1 even after their loss to Iowa State. (A defense of my rankings) They nearly survived the Big 12 gauntlet undefeated, which would have been a most impressive feat. I’m not sure I can defend this, but since none of the BCS rankings have to defend their methodology then neither should I.
Big movers this week include Baylor, Virginia Tech, and Stanford who are all up 4 spots to 7, 8, and 9, respectively. The biggest move up this week is Iowa State, who jumps 5 spots to 17.
Clemson falls 8 spots after its loss to North Carolina State and they end up 16. Likewise, Nebraska falls 7 spots to number 23 after losing to Michigan.
Cheers.
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | BCS Rank |
| Oklahoma State | 1 | 0 | 10-1 | 4 |
| LSU | 2 | 0 | 11-0 | 1 |
| Kansas State | 3 | 1 | 9-2 | 11 |
| Oklahoma | 4 | -1 | 8-2 | 9 |
| Alabama | 5 | 0 | 10-1 | 2 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 0 | 10-1 | 3 |
| Baylor | 7 | 4 | 7-3 | 18 |
| Virginia Tech | 8 | 4 | 10-1 | 5 |
| Stanford | 9 | 4 | 10-1 | 6 |
| South Carolina | 10 | -1 | 9-2 | 12 |
| Oregon | 11 | -4 | 9-2 | 10 |
| USC | 12 | 2 | 9-2 | NR |
| Texas | 13 | -3 | 6-4 | 25 |
| Georgia | 14 | 1 | 9-2 | 13 |
| Houston | 15 | 2 | 11-0 | 8 |
| Clemson | 16 | -8 | 9-2 | 17 |
| Iowa State | 17 | 5 | 6-4 | NR |
| Michigan | 18 | 0 | 9-2 | 15 |
| Penn State | 19 | 0 | 9-2 | 19 |
| Texas A&M | 20 | 0 | 6-5 | NR |
| Boise State | 21 | 2 | 9-1 | 7 |
| Missouri | 22 | 2 | 6-5 | NR |
| Nebraska | 23 | -7 | 8-3 | 21 |
| Michigan State | 24 | 1 | 9-2 | 14 |
| Auburn | 25 | -4 | 7-4 | 24 |
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
One More Arbitrary NCAA Football Ranking Scheme for the BCS – 11/13/2011
Rankings as of 11/13/2011. Previous weeks rankings here.
No changes at the top. I’ve still got Oklahoma State number 1, as I have all season. LSU comes in at number 2 and Oklahoma at number 3. Texas falls 4 spots after failing to score a touchdown in their loss to Missouri. Oregon jumps to 7 after it’s victory over previously undefeated Stanford, who falls to 13.
The two biggest movers upward were Nebraska and Michigan. Nebraska defeated Penn State to climb 8 spots to 16 and Michigan beat a rapidly fading Illinois team to climb 7 spots to 18.
Texas A&M and Auburn both fell 6 spots to 20 and 21, respectively. Texas A&M lost in 4 OT to Kansas State while Auburn fell to Georgia. Missouri and Michigan State squeak their way into the top 25 at 24 and 25, respectively, as Texas Tech and Georgia Tech drop out.
By conference, I have 8 Big 12 teams in the top 25 and 6 SEC teams. The Big 10 has 4 teams, the Pac 12 gets 3, and the ACC has 2. Mountain West and Conference USA have one team each.
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | BCS Rank |
| Oklahoma State | 1 | 0 | 10-0 | 2 |
| LSU | 2 | 0 | 10-0 | 1 |
| Oklahoma | 3 | 0 | 8-1 | 5 |
| Kansas State | 4 | 1 | 8-2 | 13 |
| Alabama | 5 | -1 | 9-1 | 3 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 1 | 9-1 | 6 |
| Oregon | 7 | 2 | 9-1 | 4 |
| Clemson | 8 | 2 | 9-1 | 7 |
| South Carolina | 9 | 2 | 8-2 | 12 |
| Texas | 10 | -4 | 6-3 | 23 |
| Baylor | 11 | 2 | 6-3 | 22 |
| Virginia Tech | 12 | 0 | 9-1 | 8 |
| Stanford | 13 | -5 | 9-1 | 9 |
| USC | 14 | 4 | 8-2 | NR |
| Georgia | 15 | 2 | 8-2 | 14 |
| Nebraska | 16 | 8 | 8-2 | 16 |
| Houston | 17 | 2 | 10-0 | 11 |
| Michigan | 18 | 7 | 8-2 | 18 |
| Penn State | 19 | -3 | 8-2 | 21 |
| Texas A&M | 20 | -6 | 6-3 | NR |
| Auburn | 21 | -6 | 6-4 | 24 |
| Iowa State | 22 | -1 | 5-4 | NR |
| Boise State | 23 | -3 | 8-1 | 10 |
| Missouri | 24 | 2 | 5-5 | NR |
| Michigan State | 25 | 3 | 8-2 | 15 |
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
NFL Playoff Projections After Week 9
New Projected 1 seed in the AFC with Baltimore and New England drops to 2 seed. The AFC North is scheduled to get 3 teams into the playoffs. On the NFC side Green Bay is still projected to be the 1 seed with San Francisco the 2. And, like the AFC, the NFC North is scheduled to get three teams into the playoffs. Has that ever happened before? Two divisons getting 3 teams into the playoffs? I have to guess no.
| Seed | AFC | NFC |
| 1 | Baltimore | Green Bay |
| 2 | New England | San Francisco |
| 3 | Houston | NY Giants |
| 4 | San Diego | Atlanta |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | Detroit |
| 6 | Cincinnati | Chicago |
Cheers.
Wisconsin Badgers
Let’s get something straight right now. Wisconsin is not a top 25 football team. 4 out of the 6 BCS computer polls have them outside of the top 25 and the other two polls have them at 24 and 16. The clowns (meant with the utmost respect) who vote in the human polls have the Badgers ranked at 14 in both polls. Let’s take a look at why the computers are right:
Wisconsin is 7-2 overall and 3-2 in the perennially (wildly) over-rated Big 10 (the conference with the worst division names in all of sports). Wisconsin won its first 6 games over UNLV, Oregon State, Northern Illinois, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Indiana. While Nebraska is a very impressive win, the 6 other teams they have beaten are currently 2-6 (MWC), 2-7 (PAC12), 6-3 (MAC), 5-4 (FCS-Great West), 1-9 (Big 10), 4-5 (Big 10). I’m not impressed by any of those wins. The three other games Wisconsin has played (Nebraska (7-2) , Michigan State (7-2), and Ohio State(6-3)), they have 1 win. The W-L record of the their 7 victories is 27-36. And if you remove Nebraska (which, as mentioned before, is actually an impressive win) there W-L for opponents in victories is 20-34.
Jeff Sagarin has Wisconsin’s strength of schedule ranked at 87. The only BCS top 25 teams with weaker schedules that that are Houston (112), who plays in Conference USA, and Cincinnati (95) who plays in the Big “We still seriously get an automatic BCS bid?” East, (which sent a 4 loss UConn team to the Fiesta Bowl last year). (“Most of the attention before the game focused on Oklahoma’s poor performance in past BCS games as well as Connecticut’s difficulties in selling tickets“.)
So, please Harris poll voters, I implore you to stop voting for teams like Wisconsin who don’t deserve to be in the top 25. (And while you’re at it, stop voting for Cincinnati, too.)
Cheers.
1 vs 2
Alabama hosted LSU yesterday in what was billed as number 1 versus number 2. This is a great way to market a football game, but it completely ignores reality. 6 out of 7 BCS computer polls, which the BCS itself has selected to rank college football teams, had Oklahoma State ranked number 1 heading into the LSU-Alabama game, and the lone dissenting system had Oklahoma State ranked number 2. That means there were 0 computer rankings that had LSU-Alabama as a 1 vs 2 game. I guess it’s just harder to market a 2 vs 3 game.
Cheers.
One More Arbitrary NCAA Football Ranking Scheme for the BCS – 11/6/2011
Rankings as of 11/6/2011. Previous weeks rankings are here.
What a game last night between LSU and Alabama! #FieldGoalsAreAwesome
I’ll update the BCS ranks when the new ones come out.
| Team | Rank | Change | Record | BCS Rank |
| Oklahoma State | 1 | 0 | 9-0 | |
| LSU | 2 | 1 | 9-0 | |
| Oklahoma | 3 | 2 | 8-1 | |
| Alabama | 4 | 0 | 8-1 | |
| Kansas St. | 5 | -3 | 7-2 | |
| Texas | 6 | 6 | 6-2 | |
| Arkansas | 7 | 3 | 8-1 | |
| Stanford | 8 | 0 | 9-0 | |
| Oregon | 9 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| Clemson | 10 | -4 | 8-1 | |
| South Carolina | 11 | -2 | 7-2 | |
| Virginia Tech | 12 | 2 | 8-1 | |
| Baylor | 13 | 3 | 5-3 | |
| Texas A&M | 14 | -7 | 5-4 | |
| Auburn | 15 | 4 | 6-3 | |
| Penn State | 16 | 1 | 8-1 | |
| Georgia | 17 | 7 | 7-2 | |
| USC | 18 | -3 | 7-2 | |
| Houston | 19 | 6 | 9-0 | |
| Boise State | 20 | 1 | 8-0 | |
| Iowa State | 21 | 11 | 5-4 | |
| Georgia Tech | 22 | 0 | 7-2 | |
| Texas Tech | 23 | -12 | 5-4 | |
| Nebraska | 24 | -6 | 7-2 | |
| Michigan | 25 | -5 | 7-2 |
BCS: My offer still stands…….if you want to contact me you can send me a tweet @StatsInTheWild.
Cheers.
NFL Rankings After Week 8
SITW NFL Rankings after week 8. (Last weeks NFL rankings) (And check out my NCAA Football Rankings)
Good news. We have heat and electricity back after 5 nights without it. I’ve never before in my life taken a shower where I could see my breath, but that happened twice this week. I assume that’s approximately what it’s like to play a football game in Wisconsin in January. Quite the experience.
Anyway, no changes in the top 7. Tampa Bay and New Orleans swap spots for the 435th time this season. The biggest moves up were Minnesota and Houston who both jumped 4 spots to 22 and 24, respectively. The biggest drop this week was Indianapolis who continues it’s downward spiral to the bottom that will inevitable end up with them ranked 32nd (and Mr. Luck).
Playoff projections to follow….
Cheers.
| Rank – After Week 8 | Change | |
| New England | 1 | 0 |
| Green Bay | 2 | 0 |
| Pittsburgh | 3 | 0 |
| Baltimore | 4 | 0 |
| Atlanta | 5 | 0 |
| NY Jets | 6 | 0 |
| Chicago | 7 | 0 |
| Tampa Bay | 8 | 1 |
| New Orleans | 9 | -1 |
| NY Giants | 10 | 0 |
| Detroit | 11 | 0 |
| Philadelphia | 12 | 0 |
| Buffalo | 13 | 1 |
| Kansas City | 14 | 1 |
| San Diego | 15 | -2 |
| Cincinnati | 16 | 0 |
| San Francisco | 17 | 1 |
| Oakland | 18 | 1 |
| Cleveland | 19 | -2 |
| Tennessee | 20 | 2 |
| Miami | 21 | -1 |
| Minnesota | 22 | 4 |
| Dallas | 23 | -2 |
| Houston | 24 | 4 |
| Washington | 25 | -1 |
| Indianapolis | 26 | -3 |
| Seattle | 27 | -2 |
| Jacksonville | 28 | -1 |
| St. Louis | 29 | 0 |
| Denver | 30 | 0 |
| Carolina | 31 | 0 |
| Arizona | 32 | 0 |
Statisticians are special because…..
From Andrew Gelman’s Blog: “P.S. Statisticians are special because, deep in our bones, we know about uncertainty. Economists know about incentives, physicists know about reality, movers can fit big things in the elevator on the first try, evolutionary psychologists know how to get their names in the newspaper, lawyers know you should never never never talk to the cops, and statisticians know about uncertainty. Of that, I’m sure.”
Stats in the Wild 